This story was originally published November 2018.
After months of promotion claiming OC Transpo’s Confederation Line was “ready for rail 2018,” the grand opening of the new Light Rail Transit (LRT) system was delayed for a second time.
The Confederation Line was originally supposed to be completed by March 24 but the City allowed an extension to November 2 when it became obvious the contractors involved in the project, Rideau Transit Group (RTG), could not make the deadline.
The missed deadlines have been shrouded in mystery, as neither contractor or city officials have been able to offer a concrete explanation as to why these delays have occured. Accusations of poor planning are among the top theories as to why the Confederation Line has been delayed. Some residents of Ottawa are left scratching their head thinking, will it ever come?
There are currently only three fully functioning LRT systems in Canada, located in Calgary, Edmonton, and Ottawa. The most recent completed LRT system was Ottawa’s Trillium line, which was installed on time in 2001 but was about $5 million ($6.8 million 2018) over its $16 million ($21.8 million 2018) budget, according to a 2002 Transit and Transportation Committee report.
However, in the past few years, more cities across Canada are starting to see the benefits of light rail and have started construction on their own LRT projects. There are five Canadian LRT systems currently under construction in Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, Mississauga, and Waterloo. Every single one has had their completion date pushed back at least once, and four out of five are expected to be over budget.
Toronto’s LRT Line 5 Eglinton has been under construction since 2011 and has already been delayed one year past its original 2020 deadline. According to the Toronto Sun, delays in permits are again threatening a delay that could put the $5.4 billion budget in jeopardy. The Waterloo Regions ION Rapid Transit System recently announced they have to extend their deadline to Spring 2019. A City memo reveals the transit system is expected to be $50 million over its original $818 million budget.
Edmonton’s Valley Line Southeast is facing similar setbacks. The LRT line was delayed months according to the Edmonton Journal, after a big slab of concrete was accidentally poured. The project is currently $44 million over its original $1.8 billion budget. Mississauga’s Hurontario LRT currently has a budget of $1.5 billion. Construction was set to begin in August, however as of November, shovels have yet to officially hit the ground on the main construction work.
Ottawa’s Confederation Line follows the exact pattern as the other LRT systems being built in Canada. Currently delayed 12 months, the City projects the LRT delays could cost $8 to 10 million per month on top of the projected $14 million cost of re-servicing bus routes, according to CBC Ottawa. The result of the RTG delaying the LRT could potentially cost up to $134 million above the original $2.1 billion budget. The repetition of the same problem around the country begs the question: why are all the LRT systems being built in Canada delayed and over budget?
Roger Buehler, a psychology professor at Wilfrid Laurier University says he may have an answer. Buehler’s research revolves around judgement and decision making, as well as goals, plans, and predictions. He presents a concept called the planning fallacy.
“[The planning fallacy] is an optimistic prediction bias, where people tend to underestimate the time needed to complete upcoming projects,” he says. “It’s this combination of having knowledge of past experience but still being overly optimistic about the case at hand.”
There’s a specific form of planning bias Buehler says relates directly to the kind of construction work seen in LRT projects around Canada. “Sometimes people in this field have talked about something called strategic misrepresentation,” he says. “In other words, people kind of know it’s not going to be done as early as they’re saying but they want to give an optimistic forecast, for whatever reason, often to gain approval of the project in the first place.”
Of course it is impossible to prove strategic misrepresentation because as Buehler puts it “even when people are well intentioned, trying to do it honestly, trying to do it as well as they can, they still fall prey to optimistic biases.”
The City put certain measures in place to deter strategic misrepresentation. For example, there is a penalty system in place with the RTG who are expected to pay the City $1 million if they miss their deadline, a cost Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson and the City Council mysteriously waived during the first delay in March. In addition to the fine, Watson expects the RTG to cover any extra costs associated with the delays, according to CBC Ottawa. However, just because Watson reiterates that any expense spent past the deadline will be paid by the RTG, there are a few people in Ottawa paying the price of these delays.
Sokun Kong, the owner of Capital Shoe Clinic, says his business of 26 years has suffered as a direct result of LRT construction. His store, located at the corner of Bank and Queen Street, is directly being blocked by construction of the Confederation Line’s Parliament Station.
Getting to Kong’s shop proves to be difficult. Customers need to cross the middle of Queen Street twice. They have to walk past a “sidewalk closed” sign where a construction worker stands guard and stops anyone from entering the construction zone, only granting permission if customers say they are going to Kong’s store. “[Customers] come and they see that [sign] and they say oh next time we’ll go somewhere else,” Kong says. The maze of construction work is problematic for Kong because he says business has steadily been going down for almost two years.
Kong doesn’t see a light at the end of the tunnel either. “This construction keep delay, and delay, and delay…it’s never over, it’s really bad,” he says. Kong has brought his concerns to the City but feels like they don’t want to do anything to fix his problem, as it has persisted for nearly two years.
City Council members feel the delays will be worth the wait as the LRT is seen as an essential tool to grow Ottawa. “It’s a necessity,” says City Councillor and liaison of housing and homelessness Mark Taylor. “We’re looking at growth, a lot of which is being fueled by the LRT and determining where are the viable sites for placing affordable housing or increasing housing affordability,” he says. “There’s a lot of people talking about the notion of affordable housing on LRT lines but we have to crystalize what does that look like.”
Five more Canadian LRT systems are planned to start construction in 2019, in Montreal, Edmonton, Hamilton, Toronto, and Ottawa. According to Buehler, these upcoming projects should be taking the setbacks of the other Canadian LRT systems into account.
“Planners should be using this strategy which [is called] reference class forecasting,” he says. “Really the basic idea is that you should make your predictions based on the previous data, you shouldn’t even really try to plan out a scenario for your specific LRT project. You should just look to the record in other cities, how long have these taken and how much over time and over budget have they been.”
The evidence across Canada suggests Buehler is right. The numerous delays prove that the LRT systems in Canada were not accurately predicted or planned. The missteps of the current construction sites should prove to be beneficial to upcoming LRT projects, should they embrace a more realistic planning process instead of an overly optimistic one. Although people fall prey to the planning fallacy in all aspects of life, it has become increasingly obvious that contractors need to build in a buffer in their plans in case anything should go wrong. If more realistic plans are outlined, organizers should be able to keep their Light Rail Transit projects on track.
Keith Bennett 